Application of the first exit time stochastic model with self-repair mechanism to human mortality rates.

Noriyuki Shimoyama, Masayasu Hosonuma

Risk Management Department, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Company, Uchisaiwai-cho 2-2-2, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan. [email protected] Management Department, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Company, Uchisaiwai-cho 2-2-2, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan. [email protected]. · pubmed

Paper

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to construct a mortality model that reasonably explains survival curves and mortality rates in terms of the decline in biological function, which is the phenomenon of ageing. In this model, an individual organism is regarded as a collection of subsystems, and for each subsystem, the model defines human mortality by introducing positive self-repair mechanisms and stochastically generated negative external shocks. The probability density function of the time of death is derived explicitly, and the model parameters are estimated using life tables from Japan and the UK, which demonstrate the existence of multiple parameter sets that fit well with the observed data.

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Research summary

The paper presents a stochastic model that incorporates self-repair mechanisms to explain human mortality rates, which aligns with the study of aging and the decline in biological function. While the model offers a novel approach to understanding mortality, its impact appears to be solid but limited, as it primarily focuses on modeling rather than directly addressing the root causes of aging or proposing interventions for lifespan extension.

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