Clinical biomarker-based biological age predicts deaths in Brazilian adults: the ELSA-Brasil study.

Abstract

Biological age is a construct that seeks to evaluate the biological wear and tear process of the organism that cannot be observed by chronological age. We estimate individuals' biological age based on biomarkers from multiple systems and validate it through its association with mortality from natural causes. Biological age was estimated in 12,109 participants (6621 women and 5488 men) from the first visit of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) who had valid data for the biomarkers used in the analyses. Biological age was estimated using the Klemera and Doubal method. The difference between chronological age and biological age (Δage) was computed. Cox proportional hazard models stratified by sex were used to assess whether Δage was associated with mortality risk after a median follow-up of 9.1 years. The accuracy of the models was estimated by the area under the curve (AUC). Δage had equal mean for men and women, with greater variability for men. Cox models showed that every 1-year increase in Δage was associated with increased mortality in men (HR (95% CI) 1.21; 1.17-1.25) and women (HR (95% CI) 1.24; 1.15-1.34), independently of chronological age. Results of the AUC demonstrated that the predictive power of models that only included chronological age (AUC chronological age = 0.7396) or Δage (AUC Δage = 0.6842) was lower than those that included both, chronological age and Δage (AUC chronological age + Δage = 0.802), in men. This difference was not observed in women. We demonstrate that biological age is strongly related to mortality in both genders and is a valid predictor of death in Brazilian adults, especially among men.