Artificial Intelligence Prediction of Age from Echocardiography as a Marker for Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract

Accurate understanding of biological aging and the impact of environmental stressors is crucial for understanding cardiovascular health and identifying patients at risk for adverse outcomes. Chronological age stands as perhaps the most universal risk predictor across virtually all populations and diseases. While chronological age is readily discernible, efforts to distinguish between biologically older versus younger individuals can, in turn, potentially identify individuals with accelerated versus delayed cardiovascular aging. This study presents a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) approach to predict age from echocardiogram videos, leveraging 2,610,266 videos from 166,508 studies from 90,738 unique patients and using the trained models to identify features of accelerated and delayed aging. Leveraging multi-view echocardiography, our AI age prediction model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 6.76 (6.65 - 6.87) years and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.732 (0.72 - 0.74). Stratification by age prediction revealed associations with increased risk of coronary artery disease, heart failure, and stroke. The age prediction can also identify heart transplant recipients as a discontinuous prediction of age is seen before and after a heart transplant. Guided back propagation visualizations highlighted the model's focus on the mitral valve, mitral apparatus, and basal inferior wall as crucial for the assessment of age. These findings underscore the potential of computer vision-based assessment of echocardiography in enhancing cardiovascular risk assessment and understanding biological aging in the heart.